Hezbollah and the war in Gaza

BEIRUT - LEBANON’S powerful Hezbollah guerrilla group, widely seen as the Arab world’s most effective military force against Israel, is holding its fire for now as Israeli warplanes pummel Palestinian ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Hezbollah possesses a formidable arsenal of rockets and missiles that bloodied Israel during a month-long war between them in 2006.

But now the Iranian-and-Syrian-backed Shi’ite Muslim militant group faces domestic constraints on reopening a fight against Israel.

In particular, the massive retaliation Israel has threatened to unleash in case of any renewed rocket bombardment could hurt the growing political power Hezbollah has gained in Lebanon since 2006, if it is seen by Lebanese as drawing the country into another devastating war.

For now, Hezbollah has instead played a propaganda role, calling for protests in Lebanon and across the Middle East to pressure Arab governments to act against Israel.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah drew tens of thousands waving Palestinian, Hezbollah and Lebanese flags in his south Beirut stronghold on Monday. In his second speech in two days, he said Israel’s Gaza offensive will ultimately fail.

On Sunday, he called on Egyptians to rise up to force their government to open border crossings with Gaza and help end the siege of the Palestinian territory.

Nasrallah put his men on alert in southern Lebanon in case Israel attacks, said he was ready to fight back if provoked, and promised not to abandon Hamas, an Islamic Sunni group also backed by Iran and Syria. But he made no threat to open fire on northern Israel in order to relieve Gaza, an act that most certainly would provoke another war with Israel.

‘It is clear they (Hezbollah) cannot afford entering a full-scale war with Israel, which would be devastating for Lebanon and for their own people, who haven’t completely rebuilt from the last war,’ said Paul Salem, Beirut-based director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre, an arm of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The 2006 war was sparked when Hezbollah guerrillas snatched two Israel soldiers from northern Israel. Israel unleashed a massive bombardment of southern Lebanon and other parts of the country.

Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets into Israel.

Israel’s assault devastated much of southern Lebanon, and more than 1,000 Lebanese and about 160 Israelis were killed.

But since then, Hezbollah has gained significant political power by joining a national unity government with its pro-US domestic rivals. The country has seen an unusually long stretch of relative calm and prosperity since the deal for the government was reached in May - and many Lebanese fear anything that could disturb the stability.

Hezbollah’s strategy now is to mobilise the Arab masses, particularly in Egypt, while counting on Hamas holding out until Israel is forced by outside pressure to end the offensive. Popular demonstrations against the Israeli offensive can embarrass pro-US Arab governments, while Hamas’ survival ensures the strength of the anti-US bloc in the region.

Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb describes the conflict as an ‘existential’ one between those opposed to US and Israeli policy - namely Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran - and the so-called pro-US Arab states.

A Hamas defeat will weaken the alliance backing it and ‘the moderate axis will reign supreme,’ but if Hamas survives the onslaught, it would be a major victory for its backers, said Saad-Ghorayeb, author of the book ‘Hezbollah: Politics and Religion.’

Mr Salem says the Gaza fighting will do little to resolve the contentious issues facing peace, such as West Bank settlements, the fate of Arab east Jerusalem and the Syrian-Israeli track.

‘The game is not Gaza. It is regional,’ Mr Salem said. ‘In a way this is a war that is not going to solve anything. It will kill hundreds and thousands of people and we still remain where we are.’

Since the 2006 war, Hezbollah has rebuilt its arsenal and claims to possess more than 30,000 rockets, with far greater range, sophistication and firepower than Hamas’ mostly primitive rockets.

Israel has been enhancing its army’s capabilities as it drew lessons from 2006. In October, Israel’s top commander on the border with Lebanon, Major General Gadi Eizenkot, said Israel will use ‘disproportionate force’ if Hezbollah attacks Israel, adding that any village used to fire missiles against the Jewish state will be destroyed.

Hezbollah also has to reckon with Lebanese troops and a more robust UN peacekeeping force in the south near the border with Israel. Since 2006, thousands of Lebanese troops have deployed along with 13,000 UN peacekeepers in a border zone.

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Netanyahu: ‘Iran - greatest historical challenge’

 

Opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu warned Thursday that “a terribly dangerous threshold will be crossed” if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, and urged world leaders to make sure it does not happen.

FRANCE ISRAEL

French President Nicolas Sarkozy meets with Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu in Paris, Thursday.

After a meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the hardline front-runner in next year’s elections, laid out his plans for Mideast peace and called Iran the “greatest historical challenge” the world faces.

“We have never had a situation in the history of the world in which a radical regime with a retrograde ideology and apparently known ambitions on the use of force will get access to the weapons of mass death,” Netanyahu told reporters, referring to the prospect of an Iranian nuclear bomb.

The whirlwind visit to Paris came as a French parliamentary report raised new warning signs about Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon, and amid revelations about a budding European Union peace initiative for the Middle East.

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier, confirming some details of a report Thursday in the Le Figaro daily newspaper, said EU foreign ministers had discussed earlier this month a “working document” to ease tensions between the Palestinians and Israel.

The document, which had not been previously made public, mentions the prospect of making an international force “available” for Palestinian areas if both sides agree, and setting up “an international mechanism” that could give financial help to Palestinian refugees, he said.

The document raises the possibility that Jerusalem could be “the capital of two states” side by side - Israel and a future Palestinian state, Chevallier said. He said the proposal is still in the works.

Netanyahu said he made his position on those issues clear to Sarkozy.

“We want a united Jerusalem under Israel, with access to the religious sites, to all the three great faiths,” he said. “Our position on refugees is also unchanged: We’ll seek a solution to the problem of refugees but not in Israel - we will not entertain refugees, Palestinian refugees, inside Israel.”

The meeting also came two days after the Foreign Affairs Commission at France’s National Assembly published a report on Iran, detailing concerns that Tehran could achieve a nuclear bomb sometime between 2009 and 2011.

Drawing on testimony from dozens of academics, defense experts, diplomats, intelligence chiefs, and officials from Iran, Israel and elsewhere, the report said, “Iran’s access to the nuclear bomb is seen as inevitable and very dangerous, notably because of the risks of escalation with the United States.”

Jean-Louis Bianco, the Socialist lawmaker who led the preparation of the report, told The Associated Press that the report’s major contribution to the debate over Iran’s nuclear program was that “we state more clearly than others our belief that they are on the threshold of the nuclear weapon.”Bianco said the report’s other thrust was its call for “extremely open” talks between the international community and Iran over its nuclear program, which the Islamic regime says is aimed at generating electricity.

“The coming year or two - this is the timetable we are talking about - will be a pivot of history,” Netanyahu said. “If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, then a terribly dangerous threshold will be crossed.”

Netanyahu also met with French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde and Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, laying out what Netanyahu called a “new approach” that would put more attention on Palestinian economic development.

Netanyahu’s Likud party has been leading in most polls in Israel, although one released on Thursday showed Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s Kadima party closing the gap.

His visit to France was his only stop in Europe this trip. France’s presidency of the European Union ends on December 31, and the former Israeli prime minister has claimed a good personal relationship with Sarkozy.


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The United Islamist Nations

Last week, the attacks in India and the threat to New York City’s subway system provided another stark reminder of the need for a united front against global terrorism. Yet instead of figuring out how to combat Islamic extremists, the United Nations is worried about offending them.

On November 24, 2008, the U.N. passed a draft resolution against the defamation of religion sponsored by the 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), where all U.N. members are being asked to pass domestic legislation against blasphemy. The resolution was originally introduced in 1999 by the OIC, asserting that “Islam is frequently and wrongly associated with human rights violations and terrorism.”

In reality, terrorism happens in Islam’s name, or more accurately, in Islamism’s name. Islamism is a 20th century product arising from the writings of sincere Muslims such as Hasan al-Banna and Syed Qutb. Frustrated by the fallen status of Muslims vis-à-vis the West, they offered a new version of Islam as a totalitarian socio-political alternative to democracy and Western license. Disparate followers from Osama bin Laden, Hezbollah and Hamas to the Jihadis that waged war on Mumbai last week are not deranged or crazy. Rather, they subscribe to a worldview that is antithetical to most Muslims and the West.

The OIC nations charge critics of Islamic extremism with “racism” and “Islamophobia” to deflect attention from the fact that such violence originates at the hand of Muslim clerics born and bread in their lands. This is because they realize they can’t control Islamism, or they tacitly agree with its message.

These Muslim clerics also export this ideology to the West to radicalize Muslim immigrants abroad, and reform-minded Muslims are usually the first victims.

Kadra Noor was beat up in 2007 for speaking out against “Islamic” female genital mutilation in Norway. In Sweden, cabinet ministerNyamko Sabuni proposed that honor killings be labeled a separate crime in the Swedish penal code and girls get mandatory gynecological exams to discourage female circumcision. She also told the Sunday Times that arranged marriages are not a part of Islam.

As a result, she was called an “Islamophobe” and instead of supporting her, 50 Islamic Swedish organizations petitioned against her appointment to the cabinet in an effort to suppress her growing influence in Swedish politics.

Pakistan, spokesman for the OIC, recently promoted a politician to minister of education after he defended the live burial of five girls inBalochistan as “tribal custom.” It is not a stretch to argue that Pakistanis not an OIC member interested in reform.

The 2005 Danish cartoon controversy kick-started the OIC campaign to pass last month’s resolution when it was cited as another example of increased discrimination against Muslims after 9/11. The “cartoonintifada” arose 5 months after the original printing of the images of Muhammad, but only weeks before the UNHCR was due to consider the OIC’s resolution on “Combating Defamation of Religion.”

Such a coincidence caused the National Secular Society to state in its Memorandum to the United Kingdom Parliament that “the Danish cartoon crisis was manufactured…to exploit sensitivities around racial discrimination and to promote (or even exaggerate) the notion of ‘Islamophobia‘ in order to restrict possibilities for open discussion or criticism of Islam….[M]easures calling for legislation banning ‘defamation of religion’ …. aim[] to remove religion, especially Islam, from public scrutiny and public debate.”

The OIC forgets that Muslims are already protected in the West. TheU.S., for example, increases sentences on crimes ranging from assault and battery to murder if they are deemed “hate crimes,” which includes crimes against a victim based on his or her religious identity.

So what is this 57-nation organization really pushing with this “anti-blasphemy” resolution at the U.N.?

In the Muslim world, anti-blasphemy laws are regularly used to suppress free speech by attacking fellow Muslims and non-Muslims who criticize the government or protest human rights violations. Such laws are also used as pretext against individuals in personal and business disputes. The mere allegation puts mobs before the accused before the police can arrive to investigate.

At the U.N., the OIC has manipulated the language of racism to make its anti-democratic agenda more attractive to “third world” nations recovering from their own genuine post-colonial struggles. Nations that voted in favor of the resolution or abstained were predominantly fromLatin America or developing African nations.

A final version of the resolution is up for a vote this month. It would be a mistake for these U.N. members to fall for anti-colonial rhetoric once again. By aligning with Islamists, the U.N. would be supporting the stifling of free speech and the suppression of human rights, and crushing the goal of building tolerant democratic societies.

Supna Zaidi is the assistant director of Islamist Watch, a project at the Middle East Forum.

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

 


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IAEA chief says efforts against Iran ‘a failure

Mohamed ElBaradei tells LA Times he considers five years of US, international efforts to rein in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions a failure, brushes aside argument that Iran determined to launch war on Israel

Ynet

Published:  12.06.08, 12:16 / Israel News

“We haven’t really moved one inch toward addressing (Iran’snuclear ambitions),” Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was quoted by the LA Times as saying.

According to the report, published Saturday, the IAEA chief considers five years of US and international efforts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions a “failure”, as Tehran moves ever closer to obtaining the means to develop weapons of mass destruction. 
ElBaradei told the LA Times he felt optimistic about an eventual US-led settlement between Tehran and the West.The 66-year-old Egyptian diplomat and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize laureate said US President-elect Barack Obama gave him “lots of hope” after he inserted a proposal to abolish all nuclear weapons in the Democratic Party platform and advocated opening diplomatic dialogue with rivals.”He is ready to talk to his adversaries, enemies, if you like, including Iran, also (North) Korea,” ElBaradei said, adding that the Bush administration was reluctant to do so. “To continue to pound the table and say, ‘I am not going to talk to you,’ and act in a sort of a very condescending way - that exaggerates problems.”According to the LA Times, some Western diplomats accuse the IAEA of not being tough enough on the nuclear ambitions of countries such as Iran, Syria and North Korea.
Mark Fitzpatrick, an arms control expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London told the newspaper that “from a Western perspective, he’s been too quick to give the benefit of the doubt to Iran and shade his reports sometimes in ways that sometimes downplayed Iran’s violations and lack of cooperation.” 

‘Different shades and colors in Iran’

Other experts, according to the report, said ElBaradei has walked a tightrope of criticism from both Iran and US allies such as Israel.

During his interview with the LA Times, the head of the nuclear watchdog said that in retrospect, the sanctions may have led to “more hardening of the position of Iran.”Many Iranians who even dislike the regime (are) gathering around the regime because they feel that country is under siege,” he said.
ElBaradei continued to say that one hope of a diplomatic solution was for the US and Iran to meet to begin talking, not just about nuclear technology but also about grievances that stretch from the 1950s, when the US helped overthrow a democratically elected government, to the present, when Iranian and American surrogates vie for supremacy in several Middle East battlegrounds.
He further argued for a “grand bargain” between the West and Iran that recognizes Tehran’s role in the region and gives it “the power, the prestige, the influence” it craves.

According to the LA Times, ElBaradei brushed aside the argument of some US analysts who describe Iran as a messianic state determined to obtain nuclear weapons to launch a war against its archnemesis, Israel.

 
“When I go to Iran I see . . . that there are all different shades and colors in Iran, from atheist to religious zealots,” he said. “So Iran is no different than any other country. I mean, they are connected with the rest of the world.”


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Future Look Into The Middle East

Haaretz is reporting the following, in part (emphasis added mine):

After an Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territories within the framework of an overall peace agreement, foreign forces could be stationed there for a specific period, the secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, told Haaretz in an interview over the weekend in Brussels.

Foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground in the troubled Middle East. This, I have noted on a number of occasions, is how peace is typically confirmed in our day, in the manner Bible prophecy suggests the future seven-year covenant between Israel and others is going to be confirmed by the Antichrist “with many” as foretold in Daniel 9:27.

And he shall confirm the covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week he shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease, and for the overspreading of abominations he shall make [it] desolate, even until the consummation, and that determined shall be poured upon the desolate.

On a number of occasions in the past I have suggested that my suspicion (KEYWORD: suspicion) is the Antichrist - a prince (or leader) of Roman descent - is going to confirm (or make strong) the covenant of peace foretold by the prophet Daniel through the use of an international peacekeeping force or a force comprised of his own people with the express approval of the international community. The stage seems to be being set for that precise scenario to unfold.

Reviewing briefly recent events, some of which I covered in another commentary, the European Union, the revived Roman empire of Bible prophecy, has expressly asked the incoming Obama administration for the opportunity to play a larger role in global affairs and, particularly, to act as co-guarantors of any future Israeli-Palestinian peace covenant that is reached. They are essentially asking, before our very eyes, what may amount to exactly what the prophet Daniel foresaw when he prophesied of the Antichrist of Roman descent (Daniel 9:26) confirming peace in the Middle East thousands of years ago.

I think most anyone who has studied past attempts at Middle East peace being obtained, even cursorily, realizes that the likelihood Israel and her enemies surrounding her on every side are going to be successful in implementing any workable peace agreement by themselves is marginal at best. A ‘third wheel’, it seems, is going to be necessary to pull it off. When we consider that and look at the book of Daniel, we see how strikingly accurate God’s vision of future events were laid out for Daniel to record for us, not to mention how very close we may well be to the return of Jesus Christ, our Lord!

Truly, our redemption draweth nigh!

Take a deep breath, Christians

Many of my brothers and sisters in Christ have written to me, worried about what the future holds, as a result of our nation’s most Left-leaning government ever preparing to take control of the United States on January 20th, 2009. Many are feeling helpless and hopeless because great potential exists that many of our most treasured freedoms are going to be jeopardized, if not erased altogether, over the course of the next few years. I confess that I’m troubled by recent developments myself on multiple fronts, but I’m trying my best to keep things in their proper perspective.

As hard as it is to look past the here and now for many of us, we need to focus our minds on what is playing out before our eyes in the BIG PICTURE to the extent our mortal flesh and its weaknesses will permit us to. We’ve not been forgotten nor forsaken and, believe it or not, better days lie ahead for us!

Jesus said, as recorded in John 14:1-3, “Let not your heart be troubled: ye believe in God, believe also in me. In my Father’s house are many mansions: if it were not so, I would have told you. I go to prepare a place for you. And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again, and receive you unto myself; that where I am, there ye may be also.”

As we take a look into what the future seems to be pointing toward coming to pass in the Middle East, we need to remember at all times that a promise has been made to us. It’s a promise that will be kept, potentially very soon.


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Who is Joel C Rosenberg?

Joel C. Rosenberg is the New York Times best-selling author of The Last Jihad, The Last Days, The Ezekiel Option, The Copper Scroll, and Epicenter: How the Current Rumblings in the Middle East Will Change Your World, with more than one million copies in print. He is also the founder and president of the Joshua Fund, a nonprofit charitable and educational organization that provides humanitarian relief for victims of war and terrorism in Israel and the Muslim world.

As a communications strategist, Joel has worked with some of the world’s most influential leaders in business, politics, and media, including Steve Forbes, Rush Limbaugh, former Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Natan Sharansky, and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As a novelist, he has been interviewed on more than 300 radio and TV programs, including ABC’s Nightline, CNN Headline News, Fox News Channel, the History Channel, MSNBC, the Rush Limbaugh Show, and the Sean Hannity Show. He has been profiled by The New York Times, The Washington Times, and The Jerusalem Post, and he was the subject of two cover stories in World magazine. He has addressed audiences all over the world, including Russia, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, and Belgium. He has spoken at the White House, the Heritage Foundation, AOL, and the International Spy Museum, as well as at dozens of conferences, universities, churches, synagogues, political events, book-seller conventions, and charitable fund-raisers.

The first page of his first novel-The Last Jihad-puts you inside the cockpit of a hijacked jet, coming in on a kamikaze attack into an American city, which leads to a war with Saddam Hussein over weapons of mass destruction. Yet it was written before 9/11, long before the actual war with Iraq. When published, The Last Jihad spent 11 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list, reaching as high as #7. It raced up the USA Today and Publishers Weekly best-seller lists, hit #4 on the Wall Street Journal list, and hit #1 on Amazon.com.

His second thriller-The Last Days-opens with the death of Yasser Arafat and a U.S. diplomatic convoy ambushed in Gaza. Six days before The Last Days was published in hardcover, a U.S. diplomatic convoy was ambushed in Gaza. Thirteen months later, Yasser Arafat died. The Last Days spent 4 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list, hit #5 on the Denver Post list, and reached #8 on the Dallas Morning News list. Both books were optioned by a Hollywood producer.

The Ezekiel Option centers on a Russian dictator who forms a military alliance with the leaders of Iran who are feverishly pursuing nuclear weapons and threatening to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. On the very day it was published in June 2005, Iran elected a new leader who vowed to accelerate the country’s nuclear program and later vowed to “wipe Israel off the map.” Six months after the book was published, Moscow signed a $1 billion arms deal with Tehran. The Ezekiel Option spent four weeks on the New York Times hardcover best-seller list and more than six months on the CBA best-seller list. It was named the “Best Christian Novel of 2006″ by the Christian Booksellers Association.

The Copper Scroll is the fourth novel in the series and a New York Times, Publishers Weekly, and CBA best seller. On June 1, 1956, The New York Times broke a story that captured the imagination of the world. Another Dead Sea Scroll had been found, unlike any before it, describing unimaginable treasures worth untold billions buried in the hills east of Jerusalem and under the Holy City itself. In the years that followed, scholars came to believe that the Copper Scroll could be history’s greatest treasure map, one that could not only lead to great wealth but pave the way to the building of the Third Jewish Temple. But the scroll’s code has never been broken, and experts from all sides warn that any effort by Israel to rebuild their Temple in Jerusalem would unleash a war of biblical proportions. Saddam Hussein is gone. Yasser Arafat is dead. A new Iraq is rising. And now White House advisors Jon Bennett and Erin McCoy find themselves facing a terrifying new threat triggered by an ancient mystery.

Epicenter is Joel’s first nonfiction book, focusing on the rapidly rising Iranian nuclear threat, why Russia is selling arms and nuclear technology to Iran, why Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes it is the end of the world, and why Ahmadinejad is saying that the way to hasten the coming of the Islamic Messiah is to annihilate the United States and Israel. Using exclusive interviews with U.S., Israeli, Arab, and Russian leaders and previously classified documents from the White House, CIA, and State Department, Joel examines 10 future headlines that could come out of Russia and the Middle East, and does so in the light of Islamic, Jewish, and Christian eschatology (end-times theology). Epicenter has spent months on the New York Times, Publishers Weekly, and CBA best-seller lists. It is currently being turned into a documentary for a major national television network.

Joel is an evangelical Christian from an Orthodox Jewish heritage. His grandparents escaped Russian persecution of the Jews in the early part of the twentieth century. Joel graduated from Syracuse University in 1989 and studied at Tel Aviv University. He is married, has four sons, and lives near Washington, D.C., where he and his wife are members of McLean Bible Church.


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