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JPost Middle East- Analysis: Why has the West Bank been quiet? January 6, 2009
- Lebanon doubts Hizbullah will open second front January 6, 2009
- UNSC to meet on Gaza resolution January 6, 2009
- Hamas opens hospital for gunmen January 6, 2009
- Sarkozy urges Assad to press for truce January 6, 2009
- ynet - Updates for RSS
- Bush adviser: Iran, Pakistan key Obama challenges January 7, 2009
- Judge to ponder whether Bernard Madoff dangerous January 7, 2009
- Rice says US supports Mubarak proposal on Gaza January 7, 2009
- Saddam wouldn't have allowed Israel's Gaza raid, says aide January 7, 2009
- UK voices support for Egyptian ceasefire initiative January 7, 2009
- Haaretz.com - News
- Rice: U.S. backs Egypt proposal for Gaza cease-fire January 7, 2009U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Tuesday Washington backed a proposal by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. ...
- ANALYSIS / Israel must double, triple, quadruple its medical aid to Gaza January 7, 2009A few days ago, Physicians for Human Rights began soliciting $700,000 in donations for hospitals in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli humanitarian organization also provided a detailed list of the medical equipment Gaza lacks, including portable monitors, respirators, ultrasound and X-ray machines, wheelchairs, needles, dressings, catheters, oxygen, medical gases, endo-tracheal tubes, screws and plates for shattered limbs, and surgical gloves. According to PHR, Gaza also has a severe shortage of intensive-care beds, which cost about $50,000 apiece. Moreover, many Palestinian ambulances are out of commission. ...
- As truce efforts grow, Israel mulls expanding Gaza ground op January 7, 2009Israel's political leadership will meet in Tel Aviv on Wednesday morning to discuss expanding the ground offensive in the Gaza Strip at a time when most of the aims of the operation have been met. ...
- Venezuelan President Chavez: Gaza operation is a Palestinian 'holocaust' January 7, 2009Venezuela expelled the ambassador to Israel on Tuesday in protest over the offensive in Gaza only hours after leftist President Hugo Chavez called the attacks a Palestinian "holocaust." ...
- Israel to establish 'humanitarian corridor' for Gaza Strip January 7, 2009Israel will set up a "humanitarian corridor" to counter a crisis caused by its offensive in the Gaza Strip, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office ...
- Rice: U.S. backs Egypt proposal for Gaza cease-fire January 7, 2009
Gound operation Gaza
Thanks to http://muqata.blogspot.com/
10:20 PM Immediate warnings of possible launches in the coming minutes to Ashdod and Ashkelon.
The Muqata refuses to publish any messages from the Gaza and Hamas websites, which are designed purely for psychological warfare (and are highly unreliable). We stand by our reports and accuracy.
10:15 PM Gaza’s primary fuel depot has been hit and is currently ablaze.
10:14 PM IDF HomeCommand special national broadcast on Channel 33 to residents of Israel with directions for behavior in event of rocket attacks. (Going to watch, be back in a few)
10:12 PM Lachish, Western Negev region go on alert for possible rocket launches at them from Gaza in the immediate minutes.
10:01 PM Reports of dozens of Hamas terrorists already killed in first contact gunbattles with IDF ground forces. (Israel Channel 2 TV)
9:57 PM Reports from Israeli sources that the government agreed this afternoon to the additional call up of tens of thousands of IDF reservists, in addition to the previous 9000 from last week.
My uniform, boots and dog-tags are already laid out in my bedroom.
9:54 PM Reports of Israeli Arabs stoning Israeli cars on highway 85 in northern Israel (in response to the IDF war on Gazan terror). Damage reported, no injuries.
9:47 PM CNN reports: Reacting to the [IDF] incursion, chief negotiator for the Palestinian Authority Saeb Erakat said: “What this will do is undermine the peace process.”
Thanks Saeb — if you define “peace process” as the weakening of Israel, then I guess you are correct. If it means stabilizing the Middle East for democracy, them I would have to disagree with your erudite analysis.
9:41 PM Israel’s Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak orders total naval embargo on Gaza
9:34 PM Reports that in addition to IDF ground force incursion, the IAF is also hitting additional Gazan targets from the air, and providing air-cover for ground troops.
9:30 PM Israeli Leftists end their Tel Aviv demonstration against the IDF war on Gazan Terror.
Over a thousand people were demonstrating against the IDF’s Operation Cast Lead at Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square on Saturday evening. In response, about 600 activists gathered in the same place to show support for the army and for residents of the South.Witnesses told the Jerusalem Post that many of the demonstrators were wearing Kaffiyehs and waving combined Israeli-Palestinian flags. (JPost)
I don’t understand why these people had their anti-IDF demonstration in Tel-Aviv. Wouldn’t it be much more appropriate to do it in downtown Ashkelon or Sederot while the Gazans continue to fire rockets at Israel?
9:27 PM Gunfire exchanges between IDF troops and Hamas terrorists in the Beit Hanoun area of Gaza (Beit Hanoun is one of the primary locations that shoots mortars and Qassam rockets at Sederot and the Western Negev towns)
9:24 PM Organized Prayers being said for the welfare of IDF troops in Israel and around the world.
9:17 PM Al-Alksa Gazan TV goes “off-air”. Hope their advertisers get a refund…
8:53 PM IDF starts massive military call up of reserve forces, (Emergency Call up #8 (Tzav-8.) (This information permitted by IDF censor). Close to 9000 reserve soldiers permitted to be called up by last week’s government decision.
8:45 PM Reports of at least 3 simultaneous IDF ground incursions into Gaza.
8:44 PM Air Raid Sirens in Western Negev
8:42 PM First clash reported between IDF ground forces and Hamas terrorists in Gaza, heavy exchange of gunfire.
8:41 PM IDF Solider critically wounded last week in Nachal Oz, has regained consciousness.
8:38 PM All Israeli News channels reporting ground incursion — it is still under military censorship to disclose where the incursion has started.
Prayer for the Welfare of Soldiers in the Israel Defense Forces
May He who blessed our fathers Abraham, Isaac and Jacob, bless the soldiers
of the Israel Defense Forces who keep guard over our country and cities of
our Lord from the border with Lebanon to the Egyptian desert and from the
Mediterranean Sea to the approach to the Arava, be they on land, air or sea.May the Almighty deliver us our enemies who arise against us, may the Holy
One, blessed be He, preserve them and save them from all sorrow and peril,
from danger and ill.May He send blessing and success in all their endeavors, may He deliver to
them those who hate us and crown them with salvation and victory, so that
the saying may be fulfilled through them, “For the Lord, your God, who walks
with you and to fight your enemies for you and to save you”, and let us say,
Amen.
8:24 PM Breaking News: Nissim Keinan, reporter for Reshet Bet, Israel Channel B Radio announced that the IDF Ground Offensive into Gaza has commenced. Sending a prayer and good wishes to our IDF forces — much success and safety.
Hezbollah and the war in Gaza
BEIRUT - LEBANON’S powerful Hezbollah guerrilla group, widely seen as the Arab world’s most effective military force against Israel, is holding its fire for now as Israeli warplanes pummel Palestinian ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Hezbollah possesses a formidable arsenal of rockets and missiles that bloodied Israel during a month-long war between them in 2006.
But now the Iranian-and-Syrian-backed Shi’ite Muslim militant group faces domestic constraints on reopening a fight against Israel.
In particular, the massive retaliation Israel has threatened to unleash in case of any renewed rocket bombardment could hurt the growing political power Hezbollah has gained in Lebanon since 2006, if it is seen by Lebanese as drawing the country into another devastating war.
For now, Hezbollah has instead played a propaganda role, calling for protests in Lebanon and across the Middle East to pressure Arab governments to act against Israel.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah drew tens of thousands waving Palestinian, Hezbollah and Lebanese flags in his south Beirut stronghold on Monday. In his second speech in two days, he said Israel’s Gaza offensive will ultimately fail.
On Sunday, he called on Egyptians to rise up to force their government to open border crossings with Gaza and help end the siege of the Palestinian territory.
Nasrallah put his men on alert in southern Lebanon in case Israel attacks, said he was ready to fight back if provoked, and promised not to abandon Hamas, an Islamic Sunni group also backed by Iran and Syria. But he made no threat to open fire on northern Israel in order to relieve Gaza, an act that most certainly would provoke another war with Israel.
‘It is clear they (Hezbollah) cannot afford entering a full-scale war with Israel, which would be devastating for Lebanon and for their own people, who haven’t completely rebuilt from the last war,’ said Paul Salem, Beirut-based director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre, an arm of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The 2006 war was sparked when Hezbollah guerrillas snatched two Israel soldiers from northern Israel. Israel unleashed a massive bombardment of southern Lebanon and other parts of the country.
Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets into Israel.
Israel’s assault devastated much of southern Lebanon, and more than 1,000 Lebanese and about 160 Israelis were killed.
But since then, Hezbollah has gained significant political power by joining a national unity government with its pro-US domestic rivals. The country has seen an unusually long stretch of relative calm and prosperity since the deal for the government was reached in May - and many Lebanese fear anything that could disturb the stability.
Hezbollah’s strategy now is to mobilise the Arab masses, particularly in Egypt, while counting on Hamas holding out until Israel is forced by outside pressure to end the offensive. Popular demonstrations against the Israeli offensive can embarrass pro-US Arab governments, while Hamas’ survival ensures the strength of the anti-US bloc in the region.
Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb describes the conflict as an ‘existential’ one between those opposed to US and Israeli policy - namely Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran - and the so-called pro-US Arab states.
A Hamas defeat will weaken the alliance backing it and ‘the moderate axis will reign supreme,’ but if Hamas survives the onslaught, it would be a major victory for its backers, said Saad-Ghorayeb, author of the book ‘Hezbollah: Politics and Religion.’
Mr Salem says the Gaza fighting will do little to resolve the contentious issues facing peace, such as West Bank settlements, the fate of Arab east Jerusalem and the Syrian-Israeli track.
‘The game is not Gaza. It is regional,’ Mr Salem said. ‘In a way this is a war that is not going to solve anything. It will kill hundreds and thousands of people and we still remain where we are.’
Since the 2006 war, Hezbollah has rebuilt its arsenal and claims to possess more than 30,000 rockets, with far greater range, sophistication and firepower than Hamas’ mostly primitive rockets.
Israel has been enhancing its army’s capabilities as it drew lessons from 2006. In October, Israel’s top commander on the border with Lebanon, Major General Gadi Eizenkot, said Israel will use ‘disproportionate force’ if Hezbollah attacks Israel, adding that any village used to fire missiles against the Jewish state will be destroyed.
Hezbollah also has to reckon with Lebanese troops and a more robust UN peacekeeping force in the south near the border with Israel. Since 2006, thousands of Lebanese troops have deployed along with 13,000 UN peacekeepers in a border zone.
Khamenei for Lebanese unity vs. Israel
Jerusalem post
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called on the disparate Lebanese ethnic groups to unite against their common enemy - Israel, the Iranian IRNA news agency reported.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that the power of all Lebanese groups should be at the service of the country’s national unity to counter the danger of the Zionist regime,” Khamenei told visiting Lebanese President Michel Suleiman.
Khamenei, lauding Suleiman’s support of Islamic militancy and his efforts to establish unity in Lebanon, promised that Iran would always side with Beirut, stressing that Lebanon enjoys high significance despite its small geographical limits. One such instance of “exemplary” coexistence of different religious groups in Lebanon, he said, was the “historical victory” over the Israel.
“Over the past 60 years, none of the Muslim and Arab states have been able to face the Zionist regime, but people in Lebanon managed to break this myth and drive the Israeli army out of their soil,” he said.
Khamenei added that Lebanon has turned into a role model for other Muslim nations due to its “resistance” to Israeli “aggressions,” saying, “During the 33-day war period, many Muslims in the Islamic and Arab states chanted slogans in support of Lebanese Hizbullah, especially…Nasrallah.”
The top cleric went on to voice his support for the repatriation of Palestinian “refugees” residing in Arab states. He said that although certain people suppose that repatriation of the Palestinian refugees is impossible, they would definitely “return” to their “homeland.”
For his part, Suleiman, thanking the Iranian government and nation for supporting Lebanon, especially during and after the Second Lebanon War and the ensuing period, called Iran’s role in solving Lebanon’s domestic problems “valuable.”
Hizbullah holds exercises south of Litani
Al-Arabiya reports Shiite terror group conducted military maneuvers in southern Lebanon on Saturday despite UN Resolution 1701, which has determined region will be demilitarized.
Hizbullah troops conducted a series of military maneuvers in southern Lebanon on Saturday, the al-Arabiya television network reported.The exercises were carried out in defiance of UN Resolution 1701, which determined that the region south of the Litani River would be demilitarized. The maneuvers were held in conjunction with a celebratory parade in Beirut by the Lebanese army to mark 65 years of Lebanese independence.
Hizbullah has not commented on the reports thus far.
Several months ago Israel’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations complained that Resolution 1701 was not being implemented, that Hizbullah has not disarmed and that the new policies set by the Lebanese government awards the group a dangerous legitimacy.
MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud), former chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said on Saturday that the military maneuvers conducted by Hizbullah “show UN Resolution 1701, which Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was so proud of at the time, for what it really is.”
Steinitz said “today it has become apparent that the decisions and failures of (Prime Minister) Olmert and Livni only led to the strengthening of Hizbullah, and the increase of the rocket and terror threat against Israel.”
Current estimates put Hizbullah’s projectile stockpile at around 40,000 missiles and rockets on both sides of the Litani. The long-range missiles, which is only believed to be in the hundreds, has warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms and a range of 250km – these are situated north of the Litani on land purchased by Hizbullah.
In southern Lebanon the organization has constructed a fortified underground system, from the safety of which Hizbullah is to combat Israel’s armor and infantry corps should they advance on the missiles north of the Litani.
IAF jets scrambled to northern border
Thirty-five years after the Yom Kippur War erupted, the Israel Air Force scrambled fighter jets to the border with Lebanon after a suspicious aircraft was detected approaching Israeli airspace.
Two jets and an attack helicopter were scrambled to the border one hour before the fast ended after an unidentified aircraft was spotted flying very close to the border. The aircraft, together with ground forces, conducted searches on the ground and shortly later returned to base after the plane turned around and flew back north into Lebanon.
The IDF was on a general high level of alert throughout the country throughout the holiday and particularly in the North, where intelligence officials have said it is possible that Hizbullah will carry out a cross-border attack during the holiday season to avenge the assassination of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh earlier this year.
A similar incident occurred in April when fighter jets were scrambled to Acre after an unidentified aircraft was spotted over the city, raising fears that an enemy plane had infiltrated Israeli airspace. The plan turned out to be an Israeli civilian aircraft that had forgotten to coordinate its flight plan with aviation authorities.
While the IDF is concerned that Hizbullah will try to kidnap soldiers - as it has done in the past - current fears are that terrorists will cross into Israel, fly an explosives-laden drone into Israel, as it tried to do during the Second Lebanon War, or infiltrate a border community like Shlomi and barricade themselves inside a home with civilian residents.
The defense establishment is concerned that Hizbullah will use the holidays, as well as the switchover in government - from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Kadima Party head Tzipi Livni - to launch an attack.
Intelligence assessments have raised the possibility that Hizbullah believes that with Olmert heading a transition government and Livni still working on forming a coalition, neither one will want to respond harshly to an isolated Hizbullah attack and risk another war erupting in the North
The Region: Israel’s grand strategy
I’ll bet you didn’t know that Israel has a strategy. After all, given politicians’ maneuvering, the difference between what is said in public and private, the partisan sniping and so on, it’s easy to miss the underlying coherence of policy. This is not to suggest that politicians are thinking great ideas and putting them into effect; rather it is the set of interests, threats and opportunities that push people into a coherent structure.
There is no solution; the enemy is not going away, nor will it moderate. The world wants to hear that Israel is seeking peace and doing everything possible, and it will.
Yet the fact that these expectations are wrong is also an essential part of the idea package.
Total military triumph is also not a way to solve the problems, as far as ending them is concerned. Attacks can be deterred, reduced in number and made less effective, but actual peace is beyond reach.
If, however, the threats and their effect can be minimized, life goes on and the country does well. So far this year, unemployment has hit a 20-year low, the economy is doing incredibly well and tourism has hit an all-time high. Morale is high despite contempt for the current prime minister. Things are pretty good.
This does not mean people are naïve, even compared to the levels of hope in the 1990s. Lessons have been learned. So here’s what underlies what’s happening.
ISRAEL IS facing threats on four fronts. In each case, there is an effort under way to neutralize, or rather reduce, those problems.
# To the north is Hizbullah. The Lebanese radical Islamist group will never accept Israel’s existence. If it thinks such actions are profitable Hizbullah will attack, at least through cross-border raids. The prisoner exchange has not sated its appetite; instead, it has produced more bragging. But it has also contributed to undercutting one of its most compelling means of incitement.
Hizbullah’s main problem, however, is two-fold. Its top priority is securing the bulk of power within Lebanon and at least doing well in next May’s election. Fighting Israel right now is a distraction from that goal. In addition, Hizbullah reduced its popularity in 2006 with just such a war and has not been able to rehouse many of its supporters after two years, despite lavish promises.
Aside from the cost of the attack, Israel’s tactic is to warn Lebanon that now with Hizbullah back in the government, any aggression will result in all of Lebanon being a target. Israel’s deterrence on this front should not be underestimated, and it is likely to remain relatively quiet for a while.
# To the northeast is Syria, with whom the government is currently negotiating. Virtually no one in the leadership expects an agreement. But aside from domestic politics, the immediate goal is to give Syria an incentive to keep Hizbullah on a leash. The attack on Syria’s nuclear installation, probable involvement in assassinating a high-ranking Hizbullah official allied to Syria and a possible part in killing a Syrian general also signalled Damascus that Israel can hit it hard if necessary.
A key aspect is the humiliating nature of these three incidents. The IAF showed its planes could attack anywhere in Syria. and that a high-ranking terrorist was not safe even in Damascus’s most secure area. That sent a clear message.
So Syria is constrained from attacking directly or indirectly. But there is another element of Israeli policy towards that country that is little understood: the looming confrontation with Iran over nuclear weapons. If Israel some day attacks Iran, it wants to minimize the extent to which Syria or Hizbullah would retaliate. By providing them incentives to remain quiet - reinforced by deterrence power - these two forces are less likely to attack, or would do so at a lower level. A similar pattern exists on the eastern front, with the Palestinian Authority, and southern one, with Hamas.
# Regarding the PA, Israel wants to see Fatah remain in power: Hamas would be worse, and the PA does do a bit to block terrorism. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni are eager either to reach an agreement in principle with the PA (nowadays called a shelf agreement) or pretend to have done so to claim great success. At the same time, though, there is little illusion about possible peace and no better real alternative than maintaining the status quo.
# In the short term, the Hamas front is the most potentially volatile. Through the cease-fire, Hamas has been given incentive not to go to all-out war if its patron Iran is attacked. Of course, Hamas frequently violates the cease-fire, either directly or by tolerating attacks - but at a low level. For Israel, the decision posed is what amount of violations (or in the longer run, Hamas military buildup) should trigger an offensive. There are also few illusions about a military attack “ending” the problem or stopping rocket firing completely. Virtually nobody thinks Hamas will make peace or even a long-term, reliable cease-fire. Yet again the status quo is about the best that can be accomplished.
THE EFFORTS on these four fronts will not necessarily diminish the response to a future attack on Iran, but they could and are - for other reasons as well - basically worth trying. This doesn’t mean all politicians would implement this strategy the same way or that the current government’s actions are brilliant - in general terms, the current leadership gives up more than is advisable or necessary - but the gap isn’t huge.
The bottom line is that being prepared to focus on the Iranian front, the relatively good domestic situation, internal politics, the lack of attractive alternatives, the intransigence of opponents, the weakness and doubtful moderation of potential negotiating partners and international passion for the mirage of peace have created a strategy based on a relative consensus across the political spectrum. It looks messy and certainly poses a range of problems, yet is neither terrible nor irrational.
A warning to Syria, Iran
Israel will not accept deployment of advanced anti-aircraft systems by Hizbullah
Ron Ben-Yishai
Part 1 of security assessment
Security and intelligence chiefs are expected to present a discouraging assessment at the cabinet meeting Wednesday. In recent months, Hizbullah has been able to establish a military presence north and south of the Litani River that is already prepared to a large extent to fire rockets and missiles on northern and central Israel – while at the same time hindering the IDF ground forces who would enter Lebanon to curb the fire.
In principle, Hizbullah’s rockets and missiles (estimated at 40,000) are found on both sides of the Litani. Yet the heavy arsenal, made up of several hundred rockets with warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms and featuring a range of up to 250 kilometers (roughly 160 miles) is found underground north of the Litani and is well-fortified in land bought by Hizbullah. In south Lebanon, the group established a fortified underground system that would be used to fight the IDF armored corps and infantry troops that advance towards the rocket arsenal north of the Litani. Meanwhile, the logistical and training center of Hizbullah, which has been boosted with thousands of new fighters, is in the Beqaa Valley region in Lebanon.
Yet the most worrisome development has to do with a new component that Hizbullah is attempting to set up in Lebanon with Syrian assistance. We are talking about an anti-aircraft system that is aimed at limiting Israel’s ability to gather intelligence above Lebanon, and later make it more difficult for the Israeli Air Force to strike in Lebanon and Syria. Should Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah be able to establish a massive anti-aircraft system in Lebanon, this will fundamentally change the strategic balance of power.
Hizbullah already possesses old models of anti-aircraft missiles and cannons; our Air Force has an answer for them. Some of them have already been deployed in the Second Lebanon War. Yet what the Syrians and Iranians may give Hizbullah at this time poses a different danger and is of a different scope than anything we have known so far (it should be noted these weapons have not yet been received by Hizbullah.) In fact, this system is supposed to provide aerial defense to the entire Syrian-Iranian rocket and missile arsenal in Lebanon and western Syria. Israel cannot reconcile itself to such development alongside Hizbullah’s rocket arsenal and ground fortifications.
Therefore, Jerusalem has embarked on a diplomatic-PR offensive in Europe and in the United States under the leadership of the army chief and defense minister, who recently visited Washington. Meanwhile, Olmert spoke about this with Sarkozy in Europe. The message to Syria, which is also being conveyed via Wednesday’s cabinet meeting and through other means, some of them clandestine, is as follows: Israel would not accept the establishment of an advanced anti-aircraft system in Lebanon; should it be set up, Israel will not hesitate to act against it.
Israel is also warning Lebanon against granting Hizbullah the freedom to act, in light of the latest government decision in Beirut that in fact defines Hizbullah as part of the national army. And the third issue: A warning to Hizbullah to refrain from carrying out acts of revenge for the killing of Imad Mugniyah; such acts would meet a “disproportional response.” The Israeli government is attempting to convey all these messages at this time to Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and the international community. Israeli officials hope that exposing the Syria-Hizbullah intentions will deter Damascus and Tehran and stop them from implementing their plans in Lebanon.
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