War in the North of Israel?
Today is day 2 of the Gaza operation.
My wife and two kids are sick and my parents in law are taking care of us all. This is the first time since our stay in Israel that there is a lot of “balagan”.
While I’am writing this post qassams and grad rockets are coming down in Israel and Israel is attacking gaza big time. Our concern is the North is Hezbollah taking advantage of the situation? This is what I read this evening.
“northern Israel will burn as Gaza is burning.”
(IsraelNN.com) IAF warplanes flew over Lebanon Sunday following a vow by Hizbullah terrorist chief Hassan Nasrallah to attack northern Israeli communities in retaliation for the IDF military operation against terrorists in Gaza.
According to Lebanese Army officials, four IAF aircraft were spotted flying in southern Lebanese air space. The aircraft, which appeared to be combat planes, remained in the Lebanese skies for more than an hour.
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(IsraelNN.com) Hizbullah terrorists have vowed to open a second front against Israel in the north in retaliation for the IDF military operation against Hamas terrorists in Gaza.
Terrorist chief Hassan Nasrallah issued a statement on Hizbullah’s Al-Manar television station Sunday, vowing that “northern Israel will burn as Gaza is burning.” Nasrallah rarely appears in person; he speaks via a video hook-up from his hideout due to fears of assassination by Israeli agents, following the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
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We follow the news carefully and give you an update when needed.
Last update Groundtroops ready to go into the Gazastrip.
6000 reserve called for duty.
Shelters to be inspected in the North of Israel.
More than 110 qassam fired on Israel on Sunday 28-12-2008.
Are the bringing Gilad Shalit home?
Looking for bloggers in Gaza of Sderot please contact me.
Hizbullah holds exercises south of Litani
Al-Arabiya reports Shiite terror group conducted military maneuvers in southern Lebanon on Saturday despite UN Resolution 1701, which has determined region will be demilitarized.
Hizbullah troops conducted a series of military maneuvers in southern Lebanon on Saturday, the al-Arabiya television network reported.The exercises were carried out in defiance of UN Resolution 1701, which determined that the region south of the Litani River would be demilitarized. The maneuvers were held in conjunction with a celebratory parade in Beirut by the Lebanese army to mark 65 years of Lebanese independence.
Hizbullah has not commented on the reports thus far.
Several months ago Israel’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations complained that Resolution 1701 was not being implemented, that Hizbullah has not disarmed and that the new policies set by the Lebanese government awards the group a dangerous legitimacy.
MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud), former chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said on Saturday that the military maneuvers conducted by Hizbullah “show UN Resolution 1701, which Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was so proud of at the time, for what it really is.”
Steinitz said “today it has become apparent that the decisions and failures of (Prime Minister) Olmert and Livni only led to the strengthening of Hizbullah, and the increase of the rocket and terror threat against Israel.”
Current estimates put Hizbullah’s projectile stockpile at around 40,000 missiles and rockets on both sides of the Litani. The long-range missiles, which is only believed to be in the hundreds, has warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms and a range of 250km – these are situated north of the Litani on land purchased by Hizbullah.
In southern Lebanon the organization has constructed a fortified underground system, from the safety of which Hizbullah is to combat Israel’s armor and infantry corps should they advance on the missiles north of the Litani.
Germany bans Hizbullah television station Al-Manar
Interior Ministry says station’s programming forbidden under Article 9 of Germany’s constitution as it operates with the purpose of violating ‘international understanding’
Associated Press
Germany’s Interior Ministry has banned Hizbullah’s television station, saying that it violates the country’s constitution.
The ministry says Al-Manar television programming was forbidden under Article 9 of Germany’s constitution, which says that organizations cannot operate with the purpose of violating “international understanding.” A ministry spokesman did not offer further details.
Al-Manar is staunchly anti-Israel and frequently broadcasts footage of Hizbullah fighters.
The US lists Hizbullah as a terrorist organization and has banned Al-Manar.
Al-Manar made no immediate comment.
The Region: Israel’s grand strategy
I’ll bet you didn’t know that Israel has a strategy. After all, given politicians’ maneuvering, the difference between what is said in public and private, the partisan sniping and so on, it’s easy to miss the underlying coherence of policy. This is not to suggest that politicians are thinking great ideas and putting them into effect; rather it is the set of interests, threats and opportunities that push people into a coherent structure.
There is no solution; the enemy is not going away, nor will it moderate. The world wants to hear that Israel is seeking peace and doing everything possible, and it will.
Yet the fact that these expectations are wrong is also an essential part of the idea package.
Total military triumph is also not a way to solve the problems, as far as ending them is concerned. Attacks can be deterred, reduced in number and made less effective, but actual peace is beyond reach.
If, however, the threats and their effect can be minimized, life goes on and the country does well. So far this year, unemployment has hit a 20-year low, the economy is doing incredibly well and tourism has hit an all-time high. Morale is high despite contempt for the current prime minister. Things are pretty good.
This does not mean people are naïve, even compared to the levels of hope in the 1990s. Lessons have been learned. So here’s what underlies what’s happening.
ISRAEL IS facing threats on four fronts. In each case, there is an effort under way to neutralize, or rather reduce, those problems.
# To the north is Hizbullah. The Lebanese radical Islamist group will never accept Israel’s existence. If it thinks such actions are profitable Hizbullah will attack, at least through cross-border raids. The prisoner exchange has not sated its appetite; instead, it has produced more bragging. But it has also contributed to undercutting one of its most compelling means of incitement.
Hizbullah’s main problem, however, is two-fold. Its top priority is securing the bulk of power within Lebanon and at least doing well in next May’s election. Fighting Israel right now is a distraction from that goal. In addition, Hizbullah reduced its popularity in 2006 with just such a war and has not been able to rehouse many of its supporters after two years, despite lavish promises.
Aside from the cost of the attack, Israel’s tactic is to warn Lebanon that now with Hizbullah back in the government, any aggression will result in all of Lebanon being a target. Israel’s deterrence on this front should not be underestimated, and it is likely to remain relatively quiet for a while.
# To the northeast is Syria, with whom the government is currently negotiating. Virtually no one in the leadership expects an agreement. But aside from domestic politics, the immediate goal is to give Syria an incentive to keep Hizbullah on a leash. The attack on Syria’s nuclear installation, probable involvement in assassinating a high-ranking Hizbullah official allied to Syria and a possible part in killing a Syrian general also signalled Damascus that Israel can hit it hard if necessary.
A key aspect is the humiliating nature of these three incidents. The IAF showed its planes could attack anywhere in Syria. and that a high-ranking terrorist was not safe even in Damascus’s most secure area. That sent a clear message.
So Syria is constrained from attacking directly or indirectly. But there is another element of Israeli policy towards that country that is little understood: the looming confrontation with Iran over nuclear weapons. If Israel some day attacks Iran, it wants to minimize the extent to which Syria or Hizbullah would retaliate. By providing them incentives to remain quiet - reinforced by deterrence power - these two forces are less likely to attack, or would do so at a lower level. A similar pattern exists on the eastern front, with the Palestinian Authority, and southern one, with Hamas.
# Regarding the PA, Israel wants to see Fatah remain in power: Hamas would be worse, and the PA does do a bit to block terrorism. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni are eager either to reach an agreement in principle with the PA (nowadays called a shelf agreement) or pretend to have done so to claim great success. At the same time, though, there is little illusion about possible peace and no better real alternative than maintaining the status quo.
# In the short term, the Hamas front is the most potentially volatile. Through the cease-fire, Hamas has been given incentive not to go to all-out war if its patron Iran is attacked. Of course, Hamas frequently violates the cease-fire, either directly or by tolerating attacks - but at a low level. For Israel, the decision posed is what amount of violations (or in the longer run, Hamas military buildup) should trigger an offensive. There are also few illusions about a military attack “ending” the problem or stopping rocket firing completely. Virtually nobody thinks Hamas will make peace or even a long-term, reliable cease-fire. Yet again the status quo is about the best that can be accomplished.
THE EFFORTS on these four fronts will not necessarily diminish the response to a future attack on Iran, but they could and are - for other reasons as well - basically worth trying. This doesn’t mean all politicians would implement this strategy the same way or that the current government’s actions are brilliant - in general terms, the current leadership gives up more than is advisable or necessary - but the gap isn’t huge.
The bottom line is that being prepared to focus on the Iranian front, the relatively good domestic situation, internal politics, the lack of attractive alternatives, the intransigence of opponents, the weakness and doubtful moderation of potential negotiating partners and international passion for the mirage of peace have created a strategy based on a relative consensus across the political spectrum. It looks messy and certainly poses a range of problems, yet is neither terrible nor irrational.
Lebanese government: Hizbullah can keep arms
Lebanese unity government authorizes policy draft affirming right of ‘the resistance’ to liberate territories under Israeli control. Pleased with achievement, veto-wielding Hizbullah already sets sights on new goal – ending IAF sorties

Roee Nahmias
08.05.08, 02:15 / Israel News
The Lebanese unity government unanimously approved the draft of its future policy statement, voting in favor of allowing Hizbullah to retain its weapons arsenal and continue its campaign to “liberate all its
territories” – i.e. the Shebaa farms and the village of Ghajar.
The position paper will now be brought before the Lebanese Parliament for its vote of confidence.
In recent days Hizbullah has drawn attention to its newly focused efforts on ending Israeli Air Force sorties over Lebanon.
The clause in question was the main point of contention between the country’s political factions as they sought to draft the policy proposal. Section 24 of the draft now assures the “right of Lebanon’s people, the army and the resistance to liberate all its territories.”
Many officials in the anti-Syrian, pro-Western bloc had argued that statement should not include the word ”resistance” and that it should make ”liberating the occupied lands” solely the national army’s responsibility. But Hizbullah and its allies strongly opposed those demands.
Hizbullah said it was satisfied with the decision: “The government’s decision proves that the resistance, which won in July 2006, and completed its victory in Operation Radwan (the prisoner-exchange deal with Israel), and is now going from victory to victory,” said Lebanese MP for Hizbullah, Hassan Haballah.
Information Minister Tareq Mitri said that four ministers had expressed reservations over the clause related to “resistance against Israel.”

















