military sources report that Israeli government leaders have misread the motives behind Hamas’two-week missile-rocket-mortar assault on Israel as jockeying for better terms when the six-month truce comes up for renewal next month. Their decision to mute Israel’s military response to the ongoing violence stems from their misplaced expectation that the attacks will stop once the truce is in the bag.

Israeli intelligence circles challenge this perception. They estimate that Hamas will continue escalating the violence at least up until Israel’s general election on Feb. 10, 2009, forcing more than a quarter of a million suffering citizens to live on a never-ending knife edge.

The Hamas rationale falls into three parts:

1. The 25-kilometer range Grad multiple-launch rockets, which the radical terrorists have vowed to continue firing against the Mediterranean port-town of Ashkelon, will also be directed further north to Ashdod, Israel’s most important port after Haifa. This will keep Hamas at center stage of Israel’s election campaign and demonstrate who really influences the Israeli voter. This maneuver, learned from the Palestinian master terrorist, who used to step up the violence before Israeli elections, will put rival Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, whose “peace talks” with Israel came to naught, in the shade.

2. Hamas is not scared by the prospect of the Olmert government being driven to a major military operation in Gaza. Its leaders calculate that it will be so costly in casualties for the Palestinian population and Israeli troops alike that an international outcry will force the IDF to cut the campaign short without achieving its goals.

3. Forcing the Israeli army to withdraw without a victory will enhance Hamas’ standing in Gaza and the West Bank – just like Hizballah after the 2006 Lebanon war.

In Hamas’ view, the compromise proposals put forward by Egyptian intelligence minister Omar Suleiman in his bid to broker a Palestinian power-sharing deal was biased in favor of Abbas and his Fatah. This left the Hamas free to walk away and instead build up its violent assaults on Israeli towns and villages.

Despite the ongoing missile attacks, Israel decided Sunday, Nov. 17, to allow 30 trucks of humanitarian aid through to Gaza. However, fuel consignments have been stopped until further notice.

By Joel C. Rosenberg

(Jerusalem, Israel, November 17, 2008) — Israel is unlikely to launch massive airstrikes to neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons program before the U.S. inauguration on January 20, 2009, barring dramatic new intelligence that points to an imminent Iranian attack.

That’s my sense of things here after spending nearly a week on the ground.

There is scant evidence of a nation preparing for imminent hostilities. The Israeli political system is engaged in gearing up for elections next February 10th. What’s more, senior Israeli officials are still urging the U.S. to take the lead on stopping Iran. “We must unite our forces, led by the international community, led by the United States of America,” said outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in an address to some 4,000 Jewish leaders from around the world. He called for bilateral and international sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran and told American Jewish leaders: “Each and every one of us needs to play a role - lobby your government, lead your organization or identify a project that can exert additional pressure on Iran….It must become more costly to Iran to pursue nuclear weapons than to give [them] up.”

Last Thursday, I had the honor of addressing the World Likud Congress (pro-Israel political activists from the U.S., Africa and Europe) here in the holy city. I was on a panel of Israeli and Iranian experts on the threat posed to the Jewish State by the Ayatollah Khamenei, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the current regime in Tehran. While I agreed with much that my fellow panelists said, I was struck by their lack of urgency for Israel to take action. One said that Israel shouldn’t strike unless its leaders can be absolutely certain that by doing so Iran will not be able to build the Bomb for at least another ten years. Another suggested Israel should not infuriate the incoming Obama administration by launching attacks on Iran without a clear green light from the new President.

I respectfully disagreed. First, let’s be clear: there is almost no scenario by which the Bush administration is going to launch attacks on Iran in the next sixty days or so and thus hand an on-going war to a new American President. Second, the Obama administration has made it crystal clear that it is not going to make neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat via military means a priority, much less a top priority. Just the opposite: Obama intends to launch “unconditional” negotiations with Tehran. So waiting for the U.S. to “take the lead” is a non-starter at this point. Third, Israel faces an existential threat from Iranian nuclear weapons and it cannot afford to wait much longer. Once Iran has the Bomb, six million Jews here will be in supreme peril. There will never be a “perfect” time to strike Iran, and Israeli leaders will never be able to be certain ahead of time just how long their attacks will push Iran back from getting the Bomb. But is not buying five more years of security - if ten are not possible - still worth it? Fourth, Israel should never surrender its national security decision-making process to Washington. Did Jerusalem wait for the U.S. to act against the enemies of the Jewish people in 1967? Did Jerusalem wait for the U.S. to bomb Iraq’s nuclear facilities in 1981? Fifth, more than ever, Israel leaders like “the sons of Issachar” described in I Chronicles 12, “men who understood the times and knew what Israel should do.”

[UPDATE: President-elect Obama now says he supports the Saudi "peace" initiative. This would require Israel to go back to its 1967 border, re-divide Jerusalem, give up the strategically vital Golan Heights, and give away all of the Biblical lands of Judea and Samaria and the strategically vital Jordan Valley.]

As I’ve written previously, war with Iran will be horrific at many levels. I do not wish for it. Indeed, I am praying passionately for the peace of Jerusalem, as the Bible teaches me to do. But the notion of Iran’s genocidal, apocalyptic leaders getting weapons of mass destruction in their hands is completely unacceptable. I am, therefore, resigned to the possibility that there may now be no other option but for Israel to launch preemptive strikes, since it is increasingly clear Washington won’t.

As I have no influence on such decisions, I am focusing on helping Israelis prepare for the next war. For much of the past week I have been with my Joshua Fund team here in Israel, working with local Jewish and Christian leaders to stockpile emergency relief supplies. I have also had the privilege of preaching at two Israeli congregations to encourage local believers here to continue walking with the Lord, loving their neighbors, praying without ceasing, and girding themselves for the dark days that very well may lie ahead. More on that in my next dispatch.

[AP: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert speaks during the General Assembly of the United Jewish Communities in Jerusalem, Sunday, Nov. 16, 2008. Olmert told the gathering that Iran is still trying to make nuclear weapons, and the world must make a concerted effort to stop the project.]

Transportation minister suggests return of ‘targeted killing’ method used during his terms as IDF chief of staff, defense minister

Roni Sofer

Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said Sunday that Israel must “stop talking and launch a personal targeted killing policy, against the Hamas government” following the renewed rocket attacks on Gaza vicinity communities and the city of Ashkelon. 

“We must form a plan and bring it to the cabinet’s approval immediately,” he told Ynet.ollowing a weekend of rocket attacks, two Qassam explodednear a kibbutz in the Eshkol Regional Council on Sunday morning. There were no injuries. In response, the Israel Air Force attacked a rocket lancing cell, killing four gunmen and injuring at least six. 
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday, “We are not eager to fight, but we do not fear a battle. In any event, we shall not tolerate the price tag the terror organizations are attempting to set.” 
When Mofaz served as IDF chief of staff and defense minister, the Israeli army made a lot of use of the “targeted killing” method against senior terror activists during the second intifada, in the West Bank as well. On Sunday, he slammed the Israeli leadership and demanded change. 
“There is not right way to deal with the issue of a Hamas government in Gaza. There is need for an urgent cabinet meeting to determine our policy against the Hamas government. The current reality is that Israeli deterrence is wearing out.”
Mofaz explained, “It turns out that Israel’s policy – cutting the supply of goods, electricity and water, is failing to yield the desired results. Moreover, it appears that we are the ones acting like the ones interested in a truce, not Hamas. This approach and policy is wrong. 
“I don’t support reoccupying Gaza at the current period of time, but we must operate and deal with the Hamas leaders. Are they allowed to violate (the truce) while we are not allowed to defend our citizens against kidnappings and injuries? 
“And when we do operate, we get a wave of Grad missiles on Ashkelon and Qassam rockets and mortar shells in response.” 

According to the minister, “We must take a targeted killing policy against the Hamas leadership. It must be part of our overall policy, which should determine concrete actions against all the terror organizations. 
“We must convene immediately, form a policy and bring it to the cabinet’s approval as soon as possible,” Mofaz said

JERUSALEM — Tensions between Hamas, the radical Palestinian rulers of Gaza, and Israel increased markedly on Friday after Hamas fired a barrage of rockets into southern Israel, sending 18 Israelis to the hospital with shock and mild injuries. 

Asmaa Waguih/Reuters

Egyptians on Friday with cans of diesel fuel to be smuggled into the Gaza Strip through tunnels. Under Israeli and American pressure, Egypt has started to destroy or close tunnels into Gaza.

Hamas officials said the attack was revenge for the deaths over the past 11 days of 11 militants and the recent increased Israeli closing of Gaza crossings. They said that while they wanted to continue the five-month-old truce with Israel, it seemed to them that Israel did not and if that was the case, Israel would pay the consequences.

Israeli officials, who say they have been keeping the crossings into Gaza shut in retaliation for the rockets, thereby greatly decreasing the availability of supplies and fuel, said it was Hamas that was breaking the truce. Senior Israeli officials met in Tel Aviv on Friday and vowed not to back down from any provocation.

The confrontations, following five months of relative calm, began to spike this month when the Israeli military destroyed a tunnel being dug toward Israel. The army feared that the tunnel would be used to seize an Israeli soldier as a bargaining chip, like Cpl. Gilad Shalit, held by Hamas for more than two years.

The Israelis said it was an isolated operation, not a violation of the cease-fire agreed to in June, and asked Egypt to pass that message to Hamas in advance. But six Hamas militants were killed during the tunnel’s destruction, leading Hamas to retaliate with rockets, which led to more closings and operations and then more rockets.

There are several factors at work beyond the tit-for-tat of the past week and a half. Hamas, which took over Gaza in June 2007 by kicking out its Fatah rivals, is feeling unusual pressure because hundreds of its men have been arrested by the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority in the West Bank in recent weeks.

The arrests have been part of increased Israeli-Palestinian cooperation in which American-trained Palestinian troops are moving into West Bank cities, leading to some pullback by Israeli troops.

A second factor is that Egyptian efforts to broker a reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah have foundered, with Hamas saying that Fatah had not made good on a mutual prisoner release.

Finally, under American and Israeli pressure, Egypt has started to destroy or shut tunnels into southern Gaza that have been a major source of supplies and fuel — and weapons — that have offset the Israeli closings.As a result, Hamas is now feeling besieged not only by Israel, but also by Fatah and Egypt.

A campaign against Fatah started on Hamas television in Gaza two days ago, with a countdown of the days until the legal term ends for Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority. Mr. Abbas has said he will stay in power an extra year, but Hamas is trying to put pressure on him to step down.

A large demonstration was also held on Thursday in Gaza demanding the release of Hamas prisoners in the West Bank.Israel has come under criticism for shutting off supplies to Gaza in the past 10 days. Oxfam International issued a statement on Friday calling on the world to force Israel to end the closing.

“As a matter of humanitarian imperative, Israeli leaders must resume supplies into Gaza without further delay,” the statement, by Oxfam International Executive Director Jeremy Hobbs, said. “If Israelis and Palestinians alike don’t exert every effort now to maintain the truce which has held since last June, the result could be catastrophic for civilians both in Gaza and in nearby Israeli towns.”

Electricity production has plunged for lack of fuel, leaving much of the coastal strip darkened. Israeli officials suspect that there is actually enough fuel, and say that Hamas officials are trying to embarrass them by closing electricity plants.

The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas was scheduled to last for six months, meaning it has another month left. Both sides are saying they are examining their options as the date approaches.

“We knew when we took out the tunnel that there would be a response and then we would try to get things back to normal,” said Mark Regev, spokesman for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel. “We have no desire to see a humanitarian crisis there. Unless the rockets stop, though, how can we move the supplies in? December marks the end of the six-month truce. Are they upping the ante before a new agreement?”

In Gaza, Mahmoud Zahhar, a senior Hamas leader, said: “We are still very committed to the truce. If Israel decides not to be committed, let it declare clearly its position. We have only been responding to their actions. Now, with the renewal date approaching, we are going to evaluate it and the crossings and will decide if we are going on with the truce.”

Israel will not fight back after 11 Palestinian missiles, 6 Grad rockets injure 23 civilians

Prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak and chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi decided at a special conference Friday evening, Nov. 14 to refrain from responding to the Palestinians’ 10-day missile blitz from Gaza. The ministers met after 6 Grad rockets hit Ashkelon and 11 missiles battered Sderot during the day. One of the 23 casualties was an 82-year old woman wounded by flying shrapnel in Sderot; the rest shock victims.

The assault damaged homes and parked vehicles, forcing tens of thousands of inhabitants in the towns and villages around the Gaza Strip to spend hours in shelters or under cover. Fifteen kilometers from Gaza, Ashkelon town hall opened the public bomb shelters, while the city of Ashdod to the north ordered the shelters prepared.

In the morning, an Israeli air strike hit one of the missiles teams in northern Gaza, injuring four Palestinians, but the missile assault continued regardless.

Thursday night, the Palestinians fired five missiles, including two Grad rockets, against Ashkelon, Sderot, Netivot and Or Haner.

Cabinet ministers and oppositions lawmakers alike call for comprehensive military action to halt the blitz which is again disrupting the lives of almost half a million distressed citizens.